Topic · 3 stories
Markets
Seen the recession warnings and the bitcoin headlines and unsure what to believe? These pages chart the signals themselves, so you can judge them on their record.
Recession watch
Are we in a recession right now?
Half the headlines say downturn, half say all-clear - and your plans deserve better than a coin flip. Here's the signal with the best real-time record, drawn over every official recession since 1960, and where it stands this week.
Updates weekly Read →Rates
Does the yield curve really predict recessions?
The recession signal everyone cites: does it deserve its reputation? Fifty years of the curve, every inversion marked against what followed, so you can judge its record yourself.
Updates daily Read →Bitcoin
Is bitcoin expensive right now?
Whether you hold it or stayed out, you've wondered if the price is too high. Twelve years of it, against the one model that has tracked it since the beginning - and what the gap says right now.
Updates daily Read →Where this data comes from
All of our data comes from live, free government and independent research sources - the US Energy Information Administration's weekly and monthly surveys, and consumer-price data via FRED. Every story links its own further reading, so you can always dig deeper than we did.